General
Will the WHO Pandemic Agreement officially enter into force before the end of 2029?
A health/geopolitics prediction on the successful ratification of the new international health treaty.
99 total votes
Analysis
The Path to Pandemic Preparedness
The main WHO Pandemic Agreement was adopted in May 2025 (simulated late 2025 context). However, its entry into force requires two major steps: 1) the adoption of the crucial Pathogen Access and Benefit-Sharing (PABS) Annex by the World Health Assembly (expected around 2027-2028 due to complex negotiations); and 2) 60 member states must formally ratify the treaty. While the need for global cooperation drives a 'Yes' push, the complexity and national sovereignty concerns surrounding the PABS system are a major headwind ('No'). The even split suggests it is a race, with entry into force before the end of 2029 being plausible but depending heavily on the speed of PABS resolution and national ratification processes.