Will the US national debt-to-GDP ratio exceed 150% in any single year (2027–2030)?

The Accelerating Debt Trajectory

The US national debt-to-GDP ratio stood near 122% in 2024 (CBO data, simulated late 2025 context). Projections, while alarming, typically show the ratio crossing the 150% threshold only in the **late 2030s or early 2040s**. For the ratio to exceed 150% between 2027 and 2030, a combination of factors would be necessary: a severe economic recession (causing GDP to shrink rapidly) and a massive, unexpected fiscal stimulus (e.g., war funding or a major, unfunded spending bill). The slight 'No' majority assumes that while high debt remains a concern, the extreme threshold of **150%** will not be reached this early without a major, unforeseen shock.