General
Will the US government fully enforce a nationwide ban on the TikTok app (removal from app stores) before the end of 2026?
A technology and politics prediction on the outcome of the forced divestiture or ban legislation against ByteDance.
81 total votes
Analysis
TikTok Ban: Enforced Removal by 2026?
US legislation has set a deadline for ByteDance to divest TikTok's US operations or face a ban. This prediction states that a full ban (removal from Apple and Google app stores) will actually be enforced before the end of 2026.
The Deal is the Likely Path
The majority 'No' vote reflects the expectation of a negotiated settlement or legal delays rather than a blackout. Recent executive orders have paused immediate enforcement to allow for divestiture talks. A 'qualified divestiture'—where TikTok US is spun off to a consortium of US investors (e.g., Oracle, Walmart)—is the path of least resistance. It satisfies national security concerns without incurring the massive political backlash of banning an app used by 170 million Americans. While the threat of a ban is real, the incentives strongly favor a deal.