General
Will the US formally sign a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan before the end of 2029?
A politics prediction on the highest level of diplomatic and military escalation in the US-Taiwan relationship.
Yes 31%Maybe 0%No 69%
13 total votes
Analysis
A Line in the Sand
Signing a formal mutual defense treaty with Taiwan would represent a massive escalation, fundamentally breaking the established 'One China' policy and carrying an extremely high risk of immediate military conflict with the PRC. The strong 'No' vote reflects the prevailing diplomatic consensus in Washington that maintaining the current status quo of 'strategic ambiguity' (backed by the Taiwan Relations Act) is the only viable path to avoid war. The risk involved is too high for such a treaty to be signed by 2029, even under increased tensions.