General
Will the US FDA grant full approval for a universal influenza vaccine (effective against all major seasonal strains for multiple years) before the end of 2028?
A science and health prediction on the breakthrough needed to eliminate the need for annual, strain-specific flu shots.
93 total votes
Analysis
The Universal Flu Shot: Regulatory Timeline
Research into a universal flu vaccine is intense, leveraging new technologies like mRNA and nanoparticles to target the virus's less-mutating structural elements. Several candidates are in Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials, showing promise for broader protection. However, the regulatory pathway to 'full approval' requires massive, long-term Phase 3 trials proving the durability and efficacy across multiple seasons and strains.
The Phase 3 Time Commitment
The majority 'No' vote acknowledges the length of the FDA approval process. Even with accelerated pathways, the necessary data collection for a vaccine claiming multi-year, multi-strain effectiveness is likely to push the final approval beyond the 2028 deadline, even if the underlying science proves successful in the near term.