Economics
Will the US economy enter a declared recession (per NBER definition) before the end of 2026?
An economics prediction on the landing of the US economy following a period of high interest rates.
40 total votes
Analysis
US Economic Outlook: Recession Watch 2026
This prediction asks if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will officially declare a recession in the United States starting before the end of 2026.
The Soft Landing Consensus
The majority 'No' vote reflects a shift in analyst sentiment toward a 'soft landing' or a 'no landing' scenario. Despite aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022-2024, the US labor market and consumer spending have remained unexpectedly resilient. Forecasts from major banks and the OECD generally predict slowing growth (around 1.5% to 1.8%) rather than a contraction. However, risks remain: a potential resurgence of inflation due to tariffs or supply shocks could force rates higher for longer, triggering a delayed downturn. While the probability of recession has decreased from 2023 highs, it remains a significant risk factor for 2026.