General
Will the US Core CPI inflation rate (annual average) fall below 2.5% for the full 2027 calendar year?
An economics prediction on US inflation normalization, where sustained cooling allows the Federal Reserve to achieve its effective 2% target (PCE) with room to spare.
44 total votes
Analysis
US Core CPI: Annual Average Below 2.5% in 2027
This prediction asks if the US **Core CPI** (which tends to run higher than the Fed's preferred Core PCE measure) will average below $2.5\%$ for the full calendar year 2027. This would imply successful disinflation well toward the Fed's effective $2\%$ target.
The Battle Against Stickiness
The **split vote** reflects mixed forecasts. While the University of Michigan economists forecast Core CPI inflation to drop to $2.8\%$ by the end of 2027 (Source: UMich, Nov 2025), others, including the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters, revised 2027 inflation projections *upward* in their latest survey (Source: Philly Fed, Nov 2025). The persistence of shelter and services inflation, combined with renewed tariff risks, makes achieving a full-year average below $2.5\%$ highly challenging, leading to an even split between 'Yes' and 'No' on this ambitious target.