Will the US Congress pass and the President sign a law establishing a national consumption tax (Sales Tax or VAT) before the end of 2030?

The Unlikely Tax Revolution

While economists and policy groups (like the CBO and Dallas Fed, simulated late 2025 context) have suggested a national consumption tax, such as a Value-Added Tax (VAT) or the FairTax proposal, as a way to address the severe US fiscal deficit, it remains a political non-starter. A consumption tax would be a major, highly visible change to the US tax system, facing massive political opposition from both parties (for different reasons: perceived regressivity vs. potential for government spending expansion). The strong 'No' vote reflects the deeply entrenched, bipartisan opposition to such a fundamental and politically challenging tax overhaul before the end of 2030.