General
Will the US annual CPI inflation rate fall below 1.5% in any month before the end of 2030?
An economics prediction on whether the US will experience a period of renewed disinflation or deflationary pressure, hitting the lower bound of the Fed's target range.
88 total votes
Analysis
The Floor of the Target
After the inflationary surge of the mid-2020s, the US Federal Reserve's primary goal has been to return inflation to its long-term average target (often around $2\%$, simulated late 2025 context). Hitting a monthly rate **below $1.5\%** requires a significant and sustained economic slowdown. Forecasts for 2026 place inflation closer to $2.0\%$ (Source 1.1). The slight 'No' majority reflects the belief that the combination of demographic shifts (fewer workers) and massive fiscal deficits will keep the structural inflation rate elevated, preventing a drop into the lower zone. However, the $40\%$ 'Yes' vote acknowledges the possibility of a severe, pre-2030 recession, which could temporarily crash demand and push inflation well below the Fed's target floor.