General
Will the United States and China sign a comprehensive climate cooperation agreement with binding emissions targets before the end of 2026?
A politics and environmental prediction on great power cooperation, testing whether the world's two largest emitters can overcome geopolitical tensions to address climate change.
58 total votes
Analysis
Climate Diplomacy in a Divided World
Despite renewed dialogue channels, US-China relations remain strained by trade disputes, technology competition, and strategic rivalry. While climate change represents a common threat, the political will for binding cooperation appears limited.
Strategic Competition Trumps Cooperation
The majority 'No' vote reflects the fundamental reality that both nations view climate policy through the lens of economic competition and national security. China resists binding international commitments that might constrain its development, while the US faces domestic political constraints on climate agreements. While limited technical cooperation may continue, a comprehensive binding agreement by 2026 seems unlikely given the current geopolitical climate.