Will the UK government formally initiate talks to rejoin the EU Single Market before the end of 2027?

UK Single Market: Talks Initiated by 2027?

Following a change in government in the UK, trade barriers remain a major economic headwind. This prediction asks if the UK will formally initiate talks to rejoin the EU Single Market (or a customs union equivalent) before the end of 2027.

The Political Red Line

The 'No' vote leads slightly. While the economic case for closer alignment is strong, rejoining the Single Market necessitates accepting Freedom of Movement and the jurisdiction of the ECJ—two 'red lines' that the Labour leadership has promised not to cross. Initiating formal talks would be seen as a betrayal of the Brexit mandate by many voters, making a quiet, incremental reduction in trade friction the more likely, politically safe approach.