Will the UK government formally apply to rejoin the EU Single Market before the end of 2029?

Brexit Reversal: Application to Rejoin Single Market by 2029?

Public opinion in the UK has shifted significantly, with polls in 2025 showing a majority of voters view Brexit as a failure. This prediction asks if the UK government will formally apply to rejoin the EU Single Market (not necessarily full EU membership) before the end of 2029.

The Political Third Rail

Despite the economic arguments, the 'No' vote leads because the political hurdle remains immense. The Labour government has focused on 'resetting' the relationship and reducing trade friction without crossing the red line of freedom of movement, which Single Market membership requires. Reopening the divisive Brexit debate is seen as a major electoral risk for the incumbents. A formal application would likely require a massive economic crisis or a decisive shift in a second-term manifesto.