Economics
Will the total number of US corporate bankruptcy filings (Chapter 7, 11, 13) in 2026 exceed the total number filed in 2020?
An economics prediction on corporate financial stress post-pandemic, driven by higher interest rates and debt maturity.
Yes 73%Maybe 13%No 15%
103 total votes
Analysis
US Corporate Bankruptcies: Exceeding 2020 Levels in 2026
During 2020, government stimulus and pandemic-era leniency kept bankruptcy rates suppressed. This prediction states that the total number of US corporate bankruptcy filings in the calendar year 2026 will **exceed the total number filed in 2020**.
The Interest Rate Effect
The high **'Yes'** vote is driven by the confluence of higher interest rates and the looming 'debt maturity wall.' Key factors include:
- **Refinancing Costs:** Companies that took on cheap, pandemic-era debt are now being forced to refinance at significantly higher rates, making their business models unsustainable.
- **Erosion of Cash Buffers:** Cash reserves built up during the pandemic have been drawn down.
- **Economic Slowdown:** Continued slow growth and consumer pressure impact margins.
The financial stress built up over 2024 and 2025 is expected to fully manifest in 2026, pushing total corporate filings past the 2020 total.