Will the total annual economic cost of global extreme weather events exceed $500 billion (inflation-adjusted USD) before the end of 2030?

The Rising Climate Bill

The annual economic cost of extreme weather events has risen dramatically in recent years, already reaching hundreds of billions of dollars (simulated late 2025 context). The cumulative damages for the most vulnerable economies have already surpassed $500 billion over the past two decades (Source 8.1). The $75\%$ 'Yes' consensus is based on the accelerating frequency and severity of events like atmospheric rivers, severe tropical cyclones, and heat domes, combined with the fact that population and infrastructure are increasingly located in high-risk areas. Hitting the **$500** billion threshold in a single year before the end of 2030** is a highly probable scenario, requiring just one or two major, high-cost events to occur in densely populated areas.