General
Will the official US poverty rate (OPM) fall below 10.0% in any single year (2027–2030)?
A US domestic prediction on the long-term impact of economic growth and social safety nets on poverty.
79 total votes
Analysis
Chasing the Single Digit
The US Official Poverty Measure (OPM) rate stood at 10.6% in 2024 (US Census Bureau, simulated late 2025 context), near its historical low. The rate is primarily driven by unemployment and wages. The Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), which accounts for taxes and transfers, often shows more volatility. The slight 'Yes' majority is based on the assumption of a sustained, strong economic expansion (low unemployment) coupled with the possible reintroduction or expansion of key, but currently temporary, social safety net programs (like the expanded Child Tax Credit) during a strong political cycle. Such a confluence of factors could be enough to push the official rate below 10.0% in a peak year.