Will the majority (over 50%) of new US passenger vehicle registrations in 2028 be fully electric (BEV) or plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vehicles?

US Electrified Vehicles Crossover: Over 50% of New Registrations by 2028

The U.S. transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating, driven by federal incentives, state mandates (like California's ZEV rules), and increasing model availability. This prediction states that the majority (over 50%) of all new US passenger vehicle registrations in 2028 will be either fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

The Momentum of Choice and Infrastructure

Achieving this milestone depends on two key factors: 1) **Model Saturation:** Every major manufacturer will have compelling electrified options across all popular segments (trucks, SUVs, sedans), making an EV or PHEV the default choice for many consumers. 2) **Charging Confidence:** The build-out of the high-speed charging network, aided by billions in federal funding, will significantly reduce range anxiety for the average buyer.

While the first half of the decade saw slow initial adoption, the market is poised for a rapid S-curve growth phase. The combined BEV and PHEV share is the most realistic measure, as PHEVs provide a necessary bridge for consumers not yet ready for pure BEV ownership. Given the regulatory pressure and technological momentum, 2028 is the likely crossover year for electrified vehicles to reach critical mass in the U.S. market.