General
Will the leaders of mainland China and Taiwan hold a formal, high-level summit before the end of 2028?
A geopolitics prediction on a formal meeting between the heads of state/government, a rarity in cross-strait relations.
70 total votes
Analysis
Cross-Strait Summit: A Formal Meeting by 2028?
Formal, high-level summits between the leaders of mainland China and Taiwan are exceedingly rare, requiring immense political risk and agreement on protocol. The most recent, significant meeting was in 2015. Resumption of dialogue hinges on Beijing's willingness to soften its 'One China' demands and Taipei's political alignment following its presidential elections.
The Political Impasse
The clear 'No' vote reflects the current political impasse. Beijing typically demands that Taipei's leadership agree to certain preconditions it views as essential to 'one China' before any summit can occur. With the current political climate in Taiwan focused on maintaining autonomy, the chances of the two sides finding sufficient common ground for a formal, high-level summit before the deadline are low.