Technology

Will the ITER fusion reactor successfully achieve its 'First Plasma' milestone before the end of 2035?

Predicting the successful initiation of the first high-temperature plasma in the ITER tokamak.

Yes 40%Maybe 40%No 20%

5 total votes

Analysis

ITER's Long Road to Fusion: The 2035 'First Plasma' Deadline


The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) is a massive international collaborative project aimed at proving the scientific feasibility of fusion energy. This prediction hinges on achieving 'First Plasma'—the successful creation of a high-temperature, magnetically confined plasma within the tokamak—before the end of 2035.

An Ambitious and Revised Timeline

The ITER project has faced numerous delays and cost increases due to its first-of-a-kind nature, global supply chain complexities, and technical challenges. While the initial goal for first plasma was 2025, the project adopted a revised baseline in 2024. The current plan now aims for a 'scientifically and technically robust initial phase of operations,' including deuterium-deuterium fusion operation in 2035. Full deuterium-tritium operation, the ultimate goal, is now expected around 2039.

Achieving first plasma by the end of 2035 represents the culmination of the massive and intricate assembly phase, which is currently underway. The core of the reactor, the tokamak, is being pieced together with extreme precision, integrating thousands of components built by 35 participating nations. Success here would validate the foundational engineering and construction of the world's largest magnetic confinement fusion device, keeping the long-term goal of limitless, clean fusion energy alive.

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