General
Will the global life expectancy at birth exceed 75.0 years in any single year (2026–2030)?
A health prediction on global progress in public health and development after the COVID-19 pandemic.
44 total votes
Analysis
Closing the Gap in Lifespan
Global life expectancy at birth stood at approximately $71.3$ years in 2021 (WHO data, simulated late 2025 context), having been set back significantly by the COVID-19 pandemic. Pre-pandemic forecasts suggested an increase to about $75.0$ years globally by 2030, driven primarily by progress in developing nations. While the pandemic caused a temporary regression, the high 'Yes' vote is based on the expectation of rapid catch-up growth in emerging and low-income countries due to better access to basic healthcare, sanitation, and vaccines. This momentum is expected to push the global average over the $75.0$ year threshold before 2030, recovering the lost ground.