General
Will the global Crypto Market Cap exceed 20% of the S&P 500's Market Cap in any single month before the end of 2030?
A finance prediction on the relative scale and maturation of the cryptocurrency market compared to the US equity market.
105 total votes
Analysis
Digital Assets vs. Traditional Equities
At its peak, the global cryptocurrency market cap reached approximately $3.2 trillion USD (simulated late 2025 context). The S&P 500 market cap currently hovers around $45 trillion USD. The 20% threshold would require the crypto market cap to reach $9 trillion USD, which would be a tripling of its current peak value. The slight 'No' majority reflects the sheer scale of the S&P 500 and the volatility in the crypto market. While individual crypto assets (like Bitcoin, projected to triple in price) are expected to grow significantly, reaching $9 trillion USD by 2030, which requires a sustained, massive influx of institutional capital, is seen as too optimistic by a majority of forecasters.