Will the global CO2 concentration (annual average) exceed 430 parts per million (ppm) in any year (2026–2030)?

The Rising CO2 Curve

The global average atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeded 422 ppm in 2024 (NOAA, simulated late 2025 context), with the annual rate of increase having accelerated in the last decade to around 2.6 ppm per year. If this rate of increase continues unabated, the 430 ppm threshold will be crossed in late 2027 or early 2028. Even with aggressive emissions reductions, the momentum of the current trend makes this threshold almost inevitable. The strong 'Yes' vote reflects the high certainty that, absent a sudden, major global economic collapse, the annual average CO2 concentration will exceed 430 ppm in at least one year before the end of 2030.