General
Will the global average cost of a lithium-ion battery pack fall below $80 per kWh before the end of 2026?
An economics and technology prediction on the affordability threshold for electric vehicles.
22 total votes
Analysis
Battery Prices: Below $80/kWh by 2026?
The cost of $100/kWh is often cited as the price parity point between EVs and gas cars. This prediction asks if the global average pack price will drop even further, **below $80/kWh**, by the end of 2026.
Oversupply Drives Prices Down
The **'Yes'** vote is supported by the massive ramp-up in battery manufacturing capacity, particularly in China. Prices in China hit record lows in 2024/2025 due to raw material (lithium, cobalt) price crashes and fierce competition. While Western prices are higher, the *global weighted average* is heavily influenced by the massive Chinese market. Goldman Sachs and other analysts project that the $80 threshold is in sight for 2026, continuing the deflationary trend essential for mass-market EV adoption.