Will the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Real Estate index fall by more than 30% from its 2025 high before the end of 2027?

REIT Crash: Down 30% by 2027?

Global commercial real estate has been under severe pressure since 2023, driven by high-interest rates and permanently altered usage patterns (e.g., remote work impacting office space). This prediction sets a threshold for a major market crash in the listed REIT sector, tracked by the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed index.

Debt Refinancing Risk

The majority 'Yes' vote is due to the 'wall of debt' maturing between 2026 and 2028. Many commercial properties were financed when interest rates were near zero. Refinancing that debt at rates four or five times higher, coupled with persistent high vacancy rates, is likely to force many funds and landlords to sell assets at fire-sale prices, triggering a dramatic drop in REIT valuations.