General

Will the first successful, dedicated commercial space debris removal mission launch before the end of 2028?

A technology prediction on the timeline for tackling the Kessler Syndrome threat in Low Earth Orbit (LEO).

Yes 83%Maybe 9%No 9%

81 total votes

Analysis

Cleaning Up LEO


Active Debris Removal (ADR) is becoming critical due to the risk of the Kessler Syndrome. The European Space Agency's (ESA) ClearSpace-1 mission, the world's first active debris removal attempt, is commissioned to remove a derelict satellite. While originally planned for an earlier launch, the latest schedules (simulated late 2025 context) suggest a launch starting in the second half of 2026, with mission operations following. Given this strong commitment from ESA and the commercial entity ClearSpace, the overwhelming 'Yes' vote reflects the high probability that this mission, or one of its close commercial competitors, will launch before the end of 2028 to meet the urgent need for orbital sustainability.

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