Will the Eurozone experience a full year (four consecutive quarters) of negative real GDP growth before the end of 2027?

Eurozone Recession: Full Year of Negative Growth by 2027

While the Eurozone has struggled with low growth, a full year of negative real GDP growth (a severe recession) would signal a major structural crisis. This prediction states this event will occur before the end of 2027.

Structural Challenges and Monetary Policy

The majority 'No' vote suggests that while growth will be slow, widespread government stimulus and resilient service sectors should prevent a full-year contraction. A 'Yes' scenario would be driven by:

• **Energy Costs:** A secondary shock to energy prices, causing permanent damage to the German and other industrial bases.
• **ECB Policy Error:** The European Central Bank keeps interest rates elevated for too long, crashing aggregate demand.
• **Sovereign Debt Crisis:** Fiscal strain in a large member state (e.g., Italy) spirals, causing systemic financial stress.

A full-year contraction is a high bar, but the region's exposure to geopolitical and monetary risks makes it a perennial, if unlikely, threat.