General

Will the European Space Agency (ESA) successfully launch its first crewed mission (with a European astronaut) before the end of 2028?

A technology and politics prediction on a major milestone for independent European human spaceflight capability.

Yes 83%Maybe 17%No 0%

12 total votes

Analysis

ESA First Crewed Mission by 2028

The European Space Agency (**ESA**) currently relies entirely on US (NASA/SpaceX) and Russian (Roscosmos) vehicles to fly its astronauts. This prediction states that ESA will successfully launch its own **first crewed mission** with a European astronaut before the end of 2028.

The Budget and Technical Hurdle

The strong **'No'** vote reflects the massive technical, political, and financial hurdles. ESA has made significant efforts toward a future autonomous capability (e.g., the *Ariane* family), but developing a human-rated vehicle is exponentially more complex and expensive than an uncrewed system. Key reasons for the consensus 'No':

  • **Lack of Funding:** Member states have historically been reluctant to fund the necessary multi-billion-euro program for a human-rated launcher and capsule.
  • **Development Timeline:** Even with full funding, the safety-critical development and certification process for human spaceflight typically takes 8-10+ years, making a 2028 launch unrealistic.

ESA is focused on moon missions, but still relying on international partners for crew transport.

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