Will the EU Carbon Price (EUA) exceed €200 per tonne for a sustained period of 30 days or more before the end of 2030?

The Cost of Decarbonization

The EU has dramatically strengthened its Emissions Trading System (ETS) to meet the $62\%$ emission reduction target by 2030 (simulated late 2025 context). As the cap on available allowances (EUAs) shrinks annually, the price must rise to incentivize decarbonization. Current forecasts (Source 7.2) suggest the price could hit **€149 per tonne by 2030**. The $55\%$ 'Yes' majority believes that €200 is achievable if three compounding factors occur: 1) A strong, synchronous post-recession economic boom; 2) A severe, sustained energy supply shock (e.g., natural gas disruption); and 3) Regulatory delays in permitting key renewables projects. This perfect storm of high demand and restricted supply could force the price past the **€200 threshold before the end of 2030**.