General
Will the Brent Crude Oil spot price close above $120 USD per barrel for any trading day before the end of 2027?
An economics prediction on the possibility of a return to high-level crude oil prices driven by geopolitical events or a long-term supply crunch.
30 total votes
Analysis
Oil at $120: Geopolitical Risk or Supply Shortage?
A close above $120/barrel requires either a major, prolonged, and unexpected geopolitical supply shock (e.g., a conflict closing a major chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz) or the simultaneous realization of two long-term trends: massive underinvestment in new production capacity by energy majors and continued strong global demand from emerging markets.
Underinvestment vs. Geopolitics
The majority 'Yes' vote is based on the combination of factors: the constant low-level geopolitical instability in major producing regions and the known long-term constraint on supply. Western energy companies are prioritizing dividends and debt reduction over large, multi-year projects, leading to a structural tightness in the market that makes it highly vulnerable to a price spike if demand remains resilient.