Will the average EU General Government Gross Debt-to-GDP ratio fall below 80% in any single year (2027–2030)?

Europe's Debt Dilemma

The EU's collective gross debt-to-GDP ratio stood at approximately 82% in early 2025 (Eurostat, simulated late 2025 context). This ratio has been falling from its pandemic peak but remains stubbornly high, driven by major debtor nations like Italy and France. Achieving the below 80% threshold is ambitious. The slight 'Yes' vote is predicated on a period of sustained, strong economic growth across the Eurozone (boosting the GDP denominator) combined with stricter enforcement of new EU fiscal rules, forcing members to accelerate debt reduction. While risks (high interest rates, recession) remain, a cyclical low point in the 2027–2029 period could push the average ratio below 80%.