Will the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election have a viable third-party candidate securing more than 10% of the popular vote?

Will a Third-Party Candidate Score 10% in 2028?

The American political landscape is increasingly polarized, and dissatisfaction with the two-party system is at multi-decade highs. This prediction examines whether a third-party candidate can secure over 10% of the vote in 2028.

Arguments for 'Yes'

Voter frustration, rising independent registration, and social media exposure create fertile conditions for a strong third-party showing. Figures like Howard Schultz, Ross Perot, and RFK Jr. demonstrated the viability of outsider campaigns.

Arguments for 'No'

Structural barriers—electoral college mechanics, funding challenges, debate gatekeeping—still heavily favor the two main parties. Historically, third-party momentum collapses closer to Election Day as voters fear wasting their vote.

If polarization intensifies, this may be one of the rare cycles where a third-party breakthrough is possible.