Technology
Will Tesla deliver more than 10,000 Optimus humanoid robots to external consumers (non-Tesla/SpaceX use) before the end of 2028?
A technology prediction on the commercial viability and rollout speed of general-purpose humanoid robotics.
55 total votes
Analysis
Optimus for Consumers: 10,000 Units by 2028?
Tesla aims to mass-produce the Optimus humanoid robot. This prediction asks if they will deliver over 10,000 units to external customers (consumers or other businesses) before the end of 2028.
Production Hell 2.0
The 'No' vote leads due to the immense challenge of general-purpose robotics. While Elon Musk has targeted 2026 for external sales, Tesla's history with new product categories (Cybertruck, FSD) suggests significant delays. Optimus must not only be manufactured but also prove useful and safe enough for unregulated environments. Delivering 10,000 functional units to external users implies a mature product and supply chain that experts believe is likely further out than 2028.