General
Will SpaceX successfully complete a fully-crewed, commercial Starship launch to Earth orbit before the end of the 2027 calendar year?
A space technology prediction on the milestone achievement of Starship's commercial readiness and crewed flight capability.
42 total votes
Analysis
Starship: Crewed Commercial Launch by 2027
This prediction targets a **fully-crewed, commercial Starship launch** (not a test or a government mission) to Earth orbit before the end of 2027. This requires regulatory approval, a certified life support system, and several successful uncrewed flights.
Rapid Iteration and Commercial Pressure
The high **'Yes'** vote is driven by SpaceX's reputation for rapid hardware iteration and the intense commercial pressure for the Starship system to become operational. Successfully achieving a crewed orbital flight by 2027 is a necessary step before the more complex NASA HLS Moon landing missions, which are currently targeting 2028/2029. Given the rapid pace of Starship's test program, achieving crew-readiness for a simple orbital flight by the end of 2027 is a highly probable milestone.