Will NVIDIA's market share of the dedicated AI Accelerator chip market (by revenue) drop below 70% in any year (2026–2030)?

The Erosion of AI Dominance

NVIDIA currently controls an estimated $80%$ to $90%$ of the AI accelerator market (simulated late 2025 context). However, competitors like AMD (with its MI300 series) and Intel (with Gaudi) are gaining traction. Crucially, major customers like Google (with TPUs) and Meta are increasingly developing and adopting custom silicon, leading to significant projected revenue growth for rivals. The split vote, leaning slightly towards 'Yes', suggests that while NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem remains powerful, the massive scale of the AI market and the hyperscalers' desire for supply diversity and pricing leverage will inevitably drive NVIDIA's revenue share below $70%$ at some point in the 2026-2030 timeframe, despite the market continuing to grow exponentially overall.