Will NATO Article 5 (collective defense) be formally triggered by a member nation before the end of 2029?

NATO Article 5: Triggered by 2029?

NATO Article 5, the principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all, has only been invoked once (after 9/11). This prediction asks if it will be formally triggered by a member nation due to a direct external attack before the end of 2029.

The Red Line and Deterrence

The strong 'No' vote relies on the success of deterrence. While Russia's war in Ukraine has heightened tensions, both Moscow and NATO are keenly aware of the escalation path that a direct attack on a NATO member would involve. A direct, kinetic attack serious enough to trigger Article 5 would risk global conflict. Both sides maintain sufficient guardrails and communication channels to prevent such a scenario, making it a high-risk event but a low-probability one.