Economics
Will Mexico remain the top trading partner (exporter) to the United States for the full 2026 calendar year?
An economics prediction on the durability of the nearshoring trend and US-China trade decoupling.
Yes 60%Maybe 19%No 20%
88 total votes
Analysis
Trade Shift: Mexico Stays #1 in 2026?
In 2023/2024, Mexico surpassed China to become the top exporter of goods to the US. This prediction asks if Mexico will retain this top spot for the full 2026 calendar year.
The Structural Shift
The high 'Yes' vote reflects the structural reality of 'nearshoring.' High tariffs on Chinese goods, the USMCA framework, and supply chain risk mitigation have permanently shifted manufacturing (auto parts, electronics, appliances) south of the border. Data from late 2025 shows Mexico widening its lead. Unless a major political crisis shuts the border, the economic momentum favors Mexico retaining the crown through 2026.