Will Japan's annual foreign tourist arrivals exceed 50 million in any single year before the end of 2030?

The Overtourism Surge

Japan's tourism industry has recovered strongly post-pandemic, setting a new record of $36.8$ million arrivals in 2024 (Source 10.2). This was driven largely by the weak Yen and strong demand. The Japanese government's explicit official target is to reach **60 million visitors by 2030** (Source 10.1). The strong $80\%$ 'Yes' vote reflects the high confidence in meeting this goal. Reaching the **50 million mark before the end of 2030** requires a growth rate well within the historical trend, especially given the government's investment in regional tourism and the continued global appeal of the country. This milestone is considered nearly certain, despite concerns about overtourism (Source 10.2).