Will India become the world's third-largest economy by nominal GDP, surpassing both Japan and Germany, before the end of 2028?

India's Economic Rise: Third Largest by 2028

This prediction states that India will surpass both Japan and Germany to become the **third-largest economy** in the world by nominal GDP before the end of 2028.

Demographics and Growth Rates

The strong **'Yes'** consensus is backed by forecasts from the IMF, S&P Global, and Morgan Stanley. While Germany and Japan face aging populations and near-zero growth, India is projecting annual growth rates of 6-7%. Japan has already slipped to fourth place (overtaken by Germany in 2023/2024), and the gap is narrowing rapidly. Unless there is a catastrophic shock to the Indian economy, the mathematical trend makes this geopolitical shift a near-certainty within the prediction window.