Will global renewable energy surpass fossil fuels in electricity generation before end of 2026?

When Will Clean Energy Overtake Fossil Fuels? 2025 or 2026?

Global renewable energy deployment has accelerated dramatically. Solar added record capacity in 2024 (~600 GW); wind turbines scaled globally; battery storage doubled installations. Meanwhile, fossil fuel capacity growth has decelerated. International Energy Agency projections suggest renewables will surpass coal as the leading electricity source by end of 2025 or mid-2026. This prediction tests whether renewable energy generation (measured in actual electricity produced, not installed capacity) exceeds fossil fuel generation globally before end of 2026.

The Current Trajectory

Renewables represented approximately 32% of global electricity generation in 2024, with trajectories suggesting 43% by 2030. Solar and wind dominate new capacity additions (70%+ of incremental capacity). Battery storage costs have collapsed to below $100/MWh, enabling round-the-clock solar operations. Fossil fuel growth has stalled: coal capacity growth slowed; gas generation faces pressure; oil generation continues declining. If current trends continue linearly, renewables reach 50%+ by 2026-2027.

The Renewable Energy Surge Drivers

Multiple factors accelerate renewable deployment: (a) cost competitiveness—solar and wind are now cheaper than fossil generation in most markets; (b) energy security—countries diversify away from oil and gas imports; (c) industrial policy—governments invest in clean energy manufacturing; (d) corporate purchasing—businesses sign PPAs (power purchase agreements) for renewable electricity; (e) storage solutions—batteries enable renewable integration at scale; (f) data center demand for clean electricity (AI/tech companies prioritize renewables). Each factor independently drives renewable expansion.

The Regional Breakdown

Renewable dominance already exists regionally: Denmark generates 80%+ from wind; Iceland generates 70%+ from hydro and geothermal; Costa Rica achieved 99% renewable generation for stretches in 2023. Large economy progress: China's fossil generation may decline in 2025 for first time since 2015; India rapidly expanding renewables; European Union increasing renewable share. Cumulatively, these regional transitions create pathway to global renewable majority by 2026.

The Cost Deflation Continues

Solar module prices fell 35% to 9 cents/watt in 2024; wind costs declining; battery prices fell 30-50% for cathodes; overall battery costs hit below $100/MWh. Bloomberg NEF projects further 22-49% cost reductions by 2035. This cost competitiveness removes primary barrier to renewable adoption—even without subsidies, renewables compete favorably. As costs fall further, deployment accelerates.

The 72% 'Yes' Vote Logic

The strong 'Yes' vote reflects observable trends: IEA projections explicitly forecast renewables surpassing coal by end-2025 or mid-2026; trajectory math suggests renewable generation will reach 50% in 2026-2027 timeframe; multiple independent forecasts (BloombergNEF, Wood Mackenzie, Rystad Energy) project similar outcomes; policy support and economic incentives align. The vote reflects confidence in current trend continuation—even accounting for uncertainties, renewable dominance within 12-18 months appears probable.

Why 18% 'No' Vote Matters

The 18% 'No' vote reflects realistic risks: (a) policy changes (Trump administration in US proposed weakening renewable policies; other countries might restrict imports); (b) supply chain disruptions affecting solar/wind manufacturing or installation; (c) economic recession reducing electricity demand and renewable investment; (d) unexpected fossil fuel productivity gains (new natural gas discoveries, technological improvements); (e) definitional ambiguity (does prediction require majority of electricity generation or majority of capacity?)—measurement matters significantly; (f) weather impacts affecting renewable output (drought reducing hydro, low-wind periods reducing wind generation).

The Measurement Methodology

The prediction's success depends on measurement: (a) if measured as installed capacity (MW), renewables already exceed fossils (50%+ renewable capacity existing); (b) if measured as annual electricity generation (TWh/year), renewables at ~32% in 2024, trending toward 50% by 2026-2027; (c) if measured as percentage of new capacity additions, renewables at 70%+; (d) if measured at any specific moment (which can vary by weather/season), renewable dominance occurs intermittently already. The prediction likely assumes annual generation measurement, most commonly used metric.

Policy Uncertainty Factor

U.S. policy changes in 2025 introduced uncertainty. One Big Beautiful Bill Act shortened tax credit qualification windows; new Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC) restrictions impact supply chains; offshore wind leasing suspended. These changes could reduce 2026 U.S. renewable capacity by 30-60%. However, global impact is more limited—China, India, and Europe continue aggressive renewable expansion. U.S. represents only ~20% of global electricity generation, so policy reversals don't prevent global renewable dominance.

The Timing Question

IEA's explicit forecast is that renewables surpass coal "by end-2025 or mid-2026 at the latest." This language suggests IEA expects achievement within the prediction window. If IEA's analysis (one of most authoritative sources) is accurate, prediction success becomes quite probable. The prediction need not require renewables to exceed *all* fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil combined), just to surpass the category—which is even more likely if coal specifically is the target.

Hydro, Nuclear, and Emerging Technologies

Renewables include hydro, geothermal, tidal, and nuclear (sometimes counted as non-carbon)—all of which contribute. If prediction counts nuclear as renewable, electricity generation from clean/renewable sources exceeds 50% already in some calculations. The definitional inclusion of nuclear, geothermal, and other sources affects probability of prediction success.

Conclusion: Highly Probable Achievement

The 72% 'Yes' vote likely understates probability. With IEA explicitly forecasting renewable dominance by mid-2026, current cost competitiveness, accelerating deployment globally, and policy support in key markets, renewable energy surpassing fossil fuels appears highly probable. More uncertain is whether prediction specifies 'surpass coal only' (likely by late 2025) or 'surpass all fossils' (likely by 2027-2028). Either way, renewable dominance within 12-18 months appears more likely than not. Watch global electricity generation data releases, capacity installation announcements, and cost trend reports through 2026 as key indicators.