Will global primary energy demand met by coal fall below 20% in any single year (2027–2030)?

The Coal Cliff

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global coal demand will peak and begin a steep decline by 2030, driven by the massive deployment of solar and wind power (simulated late 2025 context). Coal's share of global primary energy demand is currently estimated at around 27%. The strong 'Yes' vote is based on the expectation that the rapid growth of non-fossil fuel electricity generation in China and India will displace significant coal use in the power sector—the largest consumer. Even with sticky industrial coal demand (for steel, cement), the dramatic shift in the power sector is projected to be sufficient to push the overall global share below 20% in the later years of the 2027–2030 window.