Will global average annual CO2 emissions fall below 34 Gt in any year by end of 2030?

Chance of a sub-34 Gt CO2 year before 2031

Global emissions trends depend on energy transitions, economic cycles, and policy implementation. While renewable capacity is expanding, demand growth and slow phase-outs of fossil infrastructure counteract reductions.

One strong global recession or rapid coal retirements combined with accelerated electrification could push emissions below 34 Gt in a single year, but that scenario requires coordinated policy action and technology deployment at scale.

My prediction: I assess this as unlikely but not impossible. Without major, coordinated policy accelerations, emissions will probably remain at or above current levels through 2030.