Will China launch the 'Tianwen-3' Mars sample return mission before the end of 2028?

China's Mars Sample Return: Launch by 2028?

While NASA's Mars Sample Return faces budget delays, China's CNSA has accelerated its Tianwen-3 mission, aiming to retrieve samples from Mars. This prediction asks if the mission will launch before the end of 2028.

The New Space Race Leader?

The high 'Yes' vote reflects China's recent consistency in meeting space milestones (e.g., Chang'e 6 lunar samples). CNSA officials have explicitly brought the timeline forward to 2028 to capitalize on US delays. With a simpler architecture (two launches rather than NASA's multi-step complexity) and secured state funding, China is currently favored to launch this historic mission first, potentially returning samples by 2031.