General
Will China and the US sign a comprehensive trade framework by Dec 31, 2026?
A prediction about whether a formal, wide-ranging trade agreement between China and the United States will be signed before mid-2026 year end.
48 total votes
Analysis
China-US trade framework by end of 2026
The possibility of a comprehensive China-US trade framework before the end of 2026 hinges on political will, election calendars, and economic pressures in both countries. Negotiations could be propelled by mutual incentives to stabilise supply chains and reduce tariffs.
Obstacles include strategic rivalry, human rights issues, and domestic politics in both capitals. A narrower, sectoral deal is more likely than an all-encompassing pact, but a headline framework remains plausible if both sides prioritize economic stability.
My prediction: I think a full, comprehensive framework is unlikely by Dec 31, 2026. More probable is a limited or phased agreement that addresses specific sectors and establishes mechanisms for further talks.