Politics
Will Australia pass a referendum to become a Republic (replacing the British Monarch as Head of State) before the end of 2029?
A politics prediction on the constitutional future of Australia following the reign of King Charles III.
84 total votes
Analysis
Australian Republic: A 'Yes' Vote by 2029?
The debate over Australia becoming a republic has reignited, but the path to constitutional change is difficult. This prediction asks if a successful referendum will occur before the end of 2029.
The Priority Shift
The 'No' vote leads significantly. The Albanese Labor government shelved the 'Assistant Minister for the Republic' portfolio in 2024/2025 to focus on cost-of-living issues. Following the defeat of the 'Voice' referendum, political appetite for another divisive constitutional vote is low. While public sentiment for a republic exists, the lack of a consensus model (direct election vs. parliamentary appointment) and political fatigue suggest a vote is unlikely to be prioritized and won before the end of the decade.