Will at least five additional U.S. states legalize sports betting before end of 2026?

The Sports Betting Expansion: Will Five More States Legalize by 2026?

Since the 2018 Supreme Court decision overturning the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), sports betting legalization swept across the US—currently 38+ states have legalized some form of sports wagering. However, 2024 marked the first year since 2018 that zero new states legalized sports betting, suggesting momentum is slowing. This prediction tests whether at least five states legalize sports betting before end of 2026, continuing or re-energizing the expansion wave.

The Current Landscape

As of November 2025: 38 states plus DC and Puerto Rico have legal sports betting in some form (online, in-person, or both). Major states still without legal wagering include California (nation's most populous), Texas (nation's second-largest), Georgia, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Alaska, South Carolina, and Utah. Of these, California and Texas account for ~75 million residents—if either legalizes, prediction becomes very probable. Remaining states represent growing market with hundreds of millions in potential annual tax revenue.

2025 Legislative Progress

In 2025, despite multiple states considering legalization, progress stalled in most cases: (a) Georgia—bill failed again for fifth consecutive year; (b) Texas—legislation failed to advance; (c) Minnesota—committee vote resulted in 6-6 tie, bill died; (d) Oklahoma—bills passed committees but didn't reach governor; (e) Alabama—measure passed committee but lacked Senate votes; (f) Hawaii—first bill to pass both chambers but stalled on regulatory disagreements. Only Missouri achieved new legalization (voter approval late 2024, market launches December 2025). This stalling pattern suggests legislative headwinds.

Why Momentum May Be Stalling

Apparent reasons for legalization slowdown: (a) legislative fatigue—states that wanted to legalize already have; remaining states face stronger cultural/political resistance; (b) tribal gaming concerns—Oklahoma and California stalled partly due to tribal nations' exclusive gaming rights claims; (c) fiscal environment—states with budget surpluses face less pressure to legalize gambling; (d) moral/religious opposition—some states (Utah, Alabama, South Carolina) remain resistant on principle; (e) regulatory concerns—states increasingly focused on harm reduction and responsible gambling oversight, delaying expansion; (f) market saturation—smaller states may question whether market size justifies regulatory infrastructure.

Potential 2026 Legalization Candidates

Most likely states to legalize by end of 2026: (a) Alaska—bill pending committee approval, could launch January 2026 if passed this session; (b) Georgia—persistent legislative push with Governor approval likely; (c) Oklahoma—if tribal-state deal emerges post-Stitt governorship (Stitt term-limits in 2026); (d) Minnesota—could advance if partisan gridlock eases; (e) Hawaii—task force report (December 2025) could enable refined legislation; (f) Alabama—ballot referendum possible in November 2026 if legislature flips enough votes. These six states represent most likely 2026 legalization candidates.

California and Texas Wildcards

California and Texas represent game-changers: (a) California—population 40+ million, failed $600M ballot initiative in 2022, tribal deadlock continues; prediction to legalize by 2026 appears low probability (tribes say 2028 more likely); (b) Texas—legislature meets only every 2 years (not 2025, not 2026 regular session until 2027); already failed in 2021, 2023, 2025; next opportunity is 2027. Neither state likely contributes to 2026 total. Their exclusion makes reaching five-state milestone more difficult.

The 47% 'Yes' Vote Logic

The 47% 'Yes' vote reflects: (a) 2025 stalling pattern doesn't necessarily predict 2026—momentum could re-energize; (b) five additional states represents achievable number if Alaska, Georgia, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and one of Hawaii/Alabama/South Carolina advance; (c) Missouri's late-2024 legalization suggests voter enthusiasm persists when measures appear on ballots; (d) 2026 includes November elections—opportunity for voter referendums (Alabama, possibly Oklahoma); (e) tribal-state negotiations (Oklahoma, Hawaii) could reach resolution enabling 2026 launches; (f) legislators elected in 2024 in various states may have different gambling views than predecessors, enabling new coalitions. The vote reflects modest optimism that expansion resumes at meaningful scale.

Why 43% 'No' Vote Makes Sense

The 43% 'No' vote reflects: (a) 2024 was first non-expansion year since 2018—suggests momentum genuinely stalled, not temporarily; (b) remaining states face stronger headwinds (cultural opposition, tribal claims, smaller markets); (c) legislative gridlock in key states (Minnesota partisan divide, Oklahoma tribal disputes, Georgia regulatory disagreements); (d) some states (Utah, Alabama, South Carolina) show strong principled opposition; (e) California and Texas, the big prize states, appear unlikely to resolve tribal/political issues by 2026; (f) regulatory skepticism may slow legalization as states implement responsible gambling measures and discuss harm reduction; (g) only Alaska appears likely to legalize from strong legalization proponents; reaching five states requires three additional states beyond Alaska, which seems optimistic given 2025 track record. The vote reflects reasonable skepticism about momentum.

Tribal Gaming Complications

Tribal gaming exclusivity claims block legalization in Oklahoma (tribes claim exclusive gambling rights), impede progress in California (tribes negotiating terms), and complicate proposals in other states. Federal Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) grants tribes exclusive gaming rights in some cases. Resolving tribal-state relationships takes time (Oklahoma awaiting Stitt's governorship end in 2026; California reportedly targeting 2028). This factor alone could prevent 2-3 state legalizations that would otherwise occur.

Revenue Pressure Wildcard

If US economy enters recession before 2026, state budget pressures could accelerate legalization in multiple states seeking tax revenue. Conversely, strong economy might reduce legalization urgency. Macroeconomic conditions significantly affect probability timeline.

Definition Precision

"Legalize sports betting" requires definition: does this mean any form (online, in-person, both)? Does it require operational launch, or does regulatory approval count? Prediction likely assumes states that approve legislation and enable market operations by end of 2026. Alaska launching January 2026 would satisfy criteria; states passing legislation late 2026 but launching 2027 likely wouldn't.

Regulatory Shift Factor

States increasingly focused on problem gambling and responsible gambling requirements may slow legalization timelines by adding regulatory preconditions. New York's 2025 discussion of restricting sports betting props suggests regulatory tightening, not loosening. This trend could inhibit expansion in hesitant states.

Conclusion: Near Toss-up With Modest 'Yes' Bias

The 47-43 split accurately reflects genuine uncertainty. While 2024 stalling suggests momentum has genuinely slowed, five additional state legalizations by end of 2026 remains plausible if Alaska launches, Georgia passes, Oklahoma resolves tribal disputes, and one-two other states advance. However, California/Texas remaining blocked, Oklahoma/Minnesota tribal/political complications, and regulatory skepticism create offsetting headwinds. More realistic scenario: 2-3 states legalize by end of 2026 (Alaska, Georgia, possibly Oklahoma if timing aligns), with broader expansion resuming 2027-2028. Watch state legislative sessions, tribal negotiations, and November 2026 ballot measures as key indicators of progress toward five-state milestone.