General
Will Artemis III successfully land astronauts on the lunar surface before the end of 2028?
Forecasting the timeline of NASA's return to the Moon amidst vehicle delays.
66 total votes
Analysis
Moon Landing: Will 2028 Be the Year?
NASA's Artemis III mission, tasked with returning humans to the lunar surface for the first time since 1972, faces significant schedule pressure. As of late 2025, the official launch window has slipped to no earlier than mid-2027. This prediction asks if the mission will successfully land astronauts on the Moon before the end of 2028.
The Starship Bottleneck
The 'Maybe' and 'No' votes are driven by the complexity of the SpaceX Starship Human Landing System (HLS). Before Artemis III can fly, SpaceX must demonstrate multiple successful orbital refuelings and an uncrewed lunar landing. While Starship testing is accelerating at Starbase, the sheer number of technical milestones remaining makes a 2028 landing a coin-flip proposition. Success depends entirely on avoiding any catastrophic test failures in the next 24 months.