General
Will any major airline operate a hydrogen-powered commercial passenger flight on a regularly scheduled route before the end of 2030?
A climate/technology prediction on the future of zero-emission aviation.
Yes 48%Maybe 6%No 47%
90 total votes
Analysis
Hydrogen Aircraft: From Prototype to Real Routes
The aviation sector accounts for 2.5% of global emissions and is one of the hardest industries to decarbonize. Hydrogen propulsionâwhether fuel-cell electric or direct combustionâoffers a potential path to zero-emission commercial flights.
Why It Might Happen
- Airbus ZeroE program targeting mid-2030s prototypes
- ZeroAvia and Universal Hydrogen already flying test aircraft
- Government pressure in the EU and UK for green aviation corridors
Why It Might Not
- Hydrogen airport infrastructure is extremely underdeveloped
- Certification for passenger safety may take years
- Airlines struggle to justify the operational cost
This prediction reflects the tension between ambitious climate goals and slow-moving aviation engineering cycles.