Will any crewed mission (private or government) achieve a human landing on Mars (not orbital) before the end of 2030?

Mars Landing's Distant Horizon

NASA's stated goal for a crewed Mars mission is the 2030s or early 2040s, with the current focus being on Lunar missions (Artemis) as a stepping stone (simulated late 2025 context). While SpaceX has an aggressive timeline, even their earliest projected dates for a crewed landing are typically 2031 or later, following multiple cargo and test missions. The massive technological, safety, and logistical challenges—especially radiation protection and establishing a reliable Mars ascent vehicle—make a human landing by the end of 2030 an exceptionally low-probability event. The overwhelming 'No' vote reflects the consensus that this timeline is unrealistic.