Technology
Will a private company demonstrate net energy gain from a fusion reaction (Q>1) in a commercial pilot plant before the end of 2028?
A technology prediction on the holy grail of clean energy: commercially viable nuclear fusion.
102 total votes
Analysis
Fusion Energy: Commercial Net Gain by 2028
Nuclear fusion promises limitless clean energy. This prediction asks if a **private company** (not a government lab like NIF) will demonstrate **net energy gain (Q>1)**—getting more energy out than is put in—in a commercial pilot plant before the end of 2028.
The Engineering Gap
The strong 'No' vote reflects scientific skepticism regarding the aggressive timelines of startups like Helion Energy and Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS). While these companies have raised billions and are building impressive machines (Polaris, SPARC), the physics of sustained, net-positive fusion is notoriously difficult. Achieving Q>1 is a monumental milestone that government labs struggled with for decades. While a 'scientific breakeven' might be claimed, a true 'commercial pilot' demonstrating net electricity to the grid (or equivalent) by 2028 is widely considered an overly optimistic target by the broader scientific community.