General
Will a private Chinese aerospace company successfully launch, land, and re-launch an orbital class rocket before the end of 2028?
A technology prediction on China's rapidly developing private space sector achieving full reusability, a milestone currently dominated by SpaceX.
90 total votes
Analysis
Chinese Private Reusability by 2028?
China's private space industry is backed by immense state support and is aggressively pursuing technologies pioneered by Western companies. Several Chinese firms are testing reusable rockets, with aggressive published timelines targeting successful landing and re-flight within the next three years. This mirrors the early stages of the US commercial space race.
Tech Transfer vs. Execution
The slightly leaning 'Yes' vote is based on the sheer volume of resources being dedicated to this goal and the proven speed of Chinese technological development when prioritized by the central government. While initial public timelines are often missed, the country's capability and commitment to this specific milestone suggest that at least one of its numerous private firms is likely to achieve the re-launch milestone before the 2028 deadline.