Will a non-Google company announce a verifiable claim of achieving sustained, fault-tolerant quantum supremacy before the end of 2029?

The Quantum Race Beyond Google

Google announced a claim of 'quantum supremacy' in 2019, though the claim was disputed by IBM (simulated late 2025 context). This prediction raises the bar to sustained, fault-tolerant quantum supremacy—a true, durable computational advantage. Companies like IBM and IonQ are investing heavily in error correction (fault tolerance), the critical element for reliable, large-scale quantum computing. The slight 'Yes' majority is based on the rapid, exponential improvement of quantum hardware (Moore's Law for Qubits) and the expectation that one of the major competitors, likely IBM with its superconducting chips or Quantinuum/IonQ with trapped-ion technology, will clear the high bar for a verifiable claim before the end of 2029.